The pig market staged a "fall in the fall", four high under the two brothers will fly for how long
XIDADA said economic transition throes be prepared to fight, 2016 private investment growth is declining, asset bubble blew up, such as land, logistics, taxation, loan cost is high, the "made in China" faded halo, former "created in China" journey difficult, see a transformation to a domestic industry is still! On the contrary, the adjustment of animal husbandry and breeding structure under the super bull market, although the pain is not so strong, but the brutal demolition, one-size-fits all, compensation is not in place to see the report is also let a person chilling!
Spot market supply and demand, this new cycle is different from normal pigs in the past, the external environment according to the dip in the domestic economy, affected by the domestic consumption of pork production is not optimistic in recent years, pork output in 2015 fell to 54.87 million tons, pork exports do not have advantage, the terminal consumer demand for domestic, small make up attitude is still "ha ha"; After saying "demand" and then "supply", the stock of pigs has been low for a long time and the price of pigs has set a new high. Under the pressure of environmental protection, the wind of demolition has become stronger and stronger. The free-range farmers have been forced to withdraw from large enterprises and the quantity of imported smuggled meat has increased greatly. Unexpectedly, the recent change in painting style, double section good pig prices not rising but falling, since September, all regions of the pig prices have fallen below 17 yuan, 18 yuan, northeast region even fell below 16 yuan, the profit of the purchased piglet farmers greatly reduced, market panic spread! Don't panic for the time being, now follow small series Huanhuan to understand the pig market in this year, the latter two brothers will fly how long?
One high: high pig price, high profit
Breeding loss-making, since September 2013 live pig market for more than two years of active passive stack to capacity, can according to the ministry of agriculture data numerous sow breeding stock lasts 30 months of decline, in March 2016 to numerous sows living fall to their lowest level in recent years, pig market has ushered in the super big bull market at the same time, two seniors in the "content with rare for expensive" status, this year prices are too high of 2011, piglet prices doubled, in March April pig food than easily over 10, 5 month is one thousand yuan of piglets, breeding a profit of one thousand yuan, in June in the listed companies in the first half of this year our country agriculture and animal husbandry, Net profit of Wens shares reaches 7.23 billion yuan! Although the recent price of pigs has fallen sharply, but for breeding profit from reproduction and self-raising can also reach four or five hundred yuan! High profits brought high madness, buying up 1000 yuan piglets impulse to fill the yard not a few, sow farms in short supply, some commercial sows also assumed the responsibility of breeding sows, imported meat smuggling meat increased, recently in the fall in the price of pigs have analysts predict the pig cycle or will end, really so?
Two high: high import, high increase
According to customs data, from January to August 2016, China's total import of cold fresh pork reached 1.138 million tons, doubling the growth rate, which is equivalent to an increase of nearly 15 million pigs in China. The annual import of pork is expected to exceed 1.5 million tons. Lured by high profits, there have been frequent reports of meat smuggling this year, with industry insiders saying that the smuggled meat is nearly twice as much as the imported meat, equivalent to more than 40 million live pigs imported each year. Europe is the main source of cold fresh pork imports in China, domestic imports this year to relax, and batch of five Spanish pork exporter, August 1 - Germany and Spain imports accounted for as high as 37.2%, since October last year after our country to the United States, plus the import ban, Canada imports to the United States this year, share than accounted for 24.8%. Compared with the output of more than 600 million pigs, the impact on domestic pig prices is still limited. Although there is a quota for pork imports, but the increase in smuggling volume will inevitably cause concern, which is not conducive to the development of the industry and runs counter to the government's concept of reducing grain stocks. There are also opinions that the relevant departments will not allow the import volume to continue to increase, the following import situation feed bada xiaobi.com will continue to pay attention to.
Three high: high environmental protection, high pressure
It is understood that foreign pig farm environmental investment accounted for 20-25%, and domestic insiders said that the cost of pig farm sewage treatment currently accounts for more than 10% of the total cost of pig raising, for the general pig farm pressure has been very big. For domestic the most severe since 2015, the implementation of the environmental law and environmental protection policy of gradually improve, land examination and approval, environmental constraints raise farmers barriers to entry, to ban in passive to capacity, it is also the important factors that affect this extended edition pig cycle, the end of September, the ministry of agriculture said kang-zhen yu closed or moved by local governments in accordance with the scale of pig farms, pig amount of has lowered 16 million head south water concentration areas. The reduction rate is nearly 30%, and the intensity of the reduction has attracted great attention. The Ministry of Agriculture advocates the combination of planting and breeding and the resource utilization of waste from livestock and poultry breeding. In the future, northwest and Northeast China will be the key areas for large enterprises to breed.
Four high: high concentration, high expansion
Much starker choices-and graver consequences-in scale cultivation target proportion rises to 52%, mass breeding to continue in 2016, raise some big enterprises increase obviously, listed companies through the stock market financing platform expansion from pig and related industry, animal husbandry department horse youxiang said there are about 5 million small farmers out of the 2015 national, exit the main reason for the pig, long-term losses and capital chain rupture. Their big enterprises, free-range households continue to exit, during the period of transition breeding structure, capacity, slow growth of live pigs, great-grandfather 2015 generations of breeding pigs imports fell significantly impact on the market interdependence has 2-5 years, although group breeding enterprise expansion development slogans cried loudly, but the new plant construction, pregnant sows, piglets born bred to need time, if the culture can numerous sows involves progenitor expectant parents generation born, need time will be longer. So the pig cycle will not end so quickly. In addition to the fundamentals of supply and demand, the price fluctuation of pigs depends on the game between slaughterhouses and farmers.
How long will brother Two fly? According to the Data model of Huitong, it is speculated that the domestic pig stock will continue to recover slowly. It is a high probability that the pig breeding will maintain profit before June 2017, and the risk of loss will increase when the pig price falls in the second half of 2017. With the gradual increase of production capacity in the later period, the profit of breeding enterprises will shrink. For raw materials and feed enterprises, it is conducive to the growth of demand.
