Are there any opportunities for commercial feed under the non - pest and non - resistant situation?

        In August 2018, an African swine fever, let China's pig industry suffered unprecedented hit, pig feed, pig farmers also experienced a reshuffle, medium and small farmers out of acceleration, gradually formed a large-scale enterprise occupies half, formed the oligopoly market, feed only the large breed an intermediate link in enterprise or a dragon, commercial sales once reduced, many specializing pig feed enterprises went bankrupt, exit, coupled with the upcoming 2020 feed ban policy, feed of our goods going? Is there any chance for small and medium-sized feed enterprises to survive and develop? In the 16th China Animal And Feed Science and Technology and Economy Forum on December 15, 2019, senior executives from 6 feed enterprises will bring their thoughts to us!

　　BBS by Dr Jack, deputy director of the national center for biological feed engineering, attend the interaction BBS guests are: agriculture and animal husbandry group chairman YanXueZhong wide-stretching fields, proud farmer group vice chairman Huang Zuyao, hebei FuXuePing surveying of land group chairman, vice President of Beijing kyushu earth group Ma Zhongle, Liu Lei hui group vice President in Asia Pacific and the United States of farmers Wang Yuanlin wei, general manager.

　　Beijing Kyushu Dadi Group Ma Zhongle vice President of the first entitled "Commercial feed intended? Report, from the environmental impact, the African swine fever, food safety and environmental protection, economic structure and policy four aspects analyzes the factors affecting the development of commercial feed, Ma Zong prediction, commercial feed flow rate has peaked, industry innovation pattern + + products, products have spent the first and second stage of the now is experiencing cost + efficiency of the third stage, although more and more opportunities are concentrated in the hands of big businesses, but the situation is not an opportunity for small and medium-sized enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises feed overtaking lies in the innovation of the niche of the bend, the biological fermentation for commercial feed, feed It's a good growth opportunity.

　　The next six guests reviewed the past of commercial feed, summarized the current situation, and made their own comments on the future development.

　　主题一：Review the past and present of commercial feed!

　　Wang Yuanlin：

　　China's feed industry has made rapid progress in the past 20 years. In terms of the number of feed mills, there were nearly 12,000 in 2006 and 2007, less than 7,000 in 2017 and 1,000-2,000 in the next 5-10 years. In terms of the feed output of various livestock breeds, there are great changes in 2018 compared with 10 years ago. From the perspective of industrial concentration, the share of top 40 feed industry in China does not exceed 20%, and has exceeded 55% this year.

　　Ma Zhongle：

　　First of all, the role of feed enterprises change, leading change subordinate; Secondly, ASF will accelerate the integration of the feed industry. Asf provides two kinds of enterprises with opportunities. One is a large enterprise, and it is suggested to prepare for the market value management. One is small enterprises, the industry may have a second promotion, is a qualitative improvement.

　　Huang Zuyao：

　　The feed industry has the highest degree of marketization in agriculture. Now it is facing supply-side reform, stock competition, and more fierce competition in the next few years. It is very important to choose the direction, what resources are available, and at what pace to implement the strategic direction.

　　YanXueZhong：

　　The feed format is determined by the breeding format, and the feed output of beef cattle market and special breeding is still increased,The leader's influence on the overall strategic direction is very important; Feed industry will always exist, enterprises and the market fit.

　　FuXuePing：

　　At present, there are more than 900 feed enterprises in Hebei. Although there are no large groups, they are very dynamic. The transformation of larger scale enterprises is very successful.

　　Liu Lei：

　　1、 Feed low speed growth, but will not decline;

　　2、 Policies and regulations make the industry more and more standardized, which is conducive to the development of the industry;

　　3、Trend of informationization, automation, intensification and bulk processing of raw materials.

　　The growth rate of the number of enterprises exceeding 100,000 tons is 13%. In the future, 70-80% of the top50 feed enterprises enter the breeding process, and most of them are mainly commodity feeds.

　　主题二：未来5年各饲料企业准备怎么做?

　　刘磊：

　　中慧定位：商品饲料是养殖的加工车间，中慧今年饲料产量预计450万吨，增长11-12%，经营最好的一年，非瘟对我们影响不大;

　　管理和效率是我们行业生存的根本，服务营销、价值营销、怎么为养殖户提供一些增值服务，增加客户粘性，与客户长期稳健的合作等等。

　　付学平：

　　从运营模式，与时俱进、生物饲料是一个爆点;

　　运营范围要符合客户的价值需求，猪饲料提高品质，符合无抗等;

　　经营范围，围绕猪产业进行延伸，跨行业要谨慎;

　　商业饲料：第一个阶段是产品+模式，后一个阶段是合作共生

　　殷学中：

　　没有强大的资金和规模，就做细分市场;

　　智慧来源于市场一线，能否从基层找到解决方案;

　　基于自己的能力做出对未来发展战略的选择。

　　黄祖尧：

　　1、供应链的管理很重要

　　2、联合发展的路径

　　3、傲农饲料在品类方面，从单一猪料通过联合的方法涉足禽料和水产料;从需求端、用户端思考客户的需求，老板要亲历亲为;顺势而为，两个势，一个是势，一个是识。

　　马忠乐：

　　中国做全产业链成功的很少，因为基础性的支撑不够，对于中小企业，契约式产业链有机会;

　　对于商业饲料来讲，和下游养殖场有大把机会，资本的关注度未来向上游集中;

　　小企业练好内功，同时做好规范，3年以后中小企业春天会来，有一部分中小企业被并购或联合。

　　王源麟：

　　1、未来饲料厂还会继续兼并，整合，一条龙/半条龙还是发展趋势;

　　2、中国饲料产能不会出现断崖式下降，但结构发生很大变化，因为居民消费在调整;

　　3、以后饲料是一个资本密集型，人才密集型的行业。

　　各自用一句话总结：

　　王源麟：感到自豪，充满信心，下一步会更好!

　　马忠乐：更多的精力放在在恶劣天气到来的准备，行业有巨大空间和潜力需要我们去努力!

　　黄祖尧：看好这个产业，方向、节奏、人匹配决定企业活的更长与否!

　　殷学中：热爱行业和客户，办法总会有的!

　　付学平：构建满足客户需求价值链体系，苦练内功，改革创新!

　　刘磊：未来给有准备的人，竞争对手只有一个自己!